Markets are looking to the future. A rebound in equity valuations since early October means many investors are already pricing in next year’s growth. Yet this improving sentiment is premature: there is no truce in the trade war, China is slowing, a no deal Brexit is still a live risk, factories are stagnating and, outside the US, central banks have used up much of their ammunition. The problems facing the world economy are unchanged. They could get substantially worse.
市場正在展望未來。自10月初以來，股市估值出現反彈，這意味著許多投資者已將明年的增長反映在股價之中。然而，市場高興得太早了：貿易戰還沒有休戰，中國經濟正在放緩，英國無協議退歐仍是一個現實的風險，工廠增長停滯，并且在美國之外地區，各國央行已消耗了大量彈藥。世界經濟面臨的問題沒有改變，且這些問題有大幅惡化的可能性。
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