April was a testy month for Japan. The yen tumbled to a 34-year low before the government appeared to barge in with over $35bn worth of currency support. A prominent think-tank warned that well over a third of the country’s municipalities may vanish. A key industrial policy committee warned of chronic threats to national prosperity.
Japan — out of deflation, out of monetary policy sync with the rest of the developed world and, increasingly, out of people — has been plausibly described for more than a year now as being at a historic turning point. April, and the yen show in particular, have made its destination considerably less clear.
Among the various possible paths throughout 2024 and into its mid-term future, there is one that Japan affects to fear most: a notional descent into the disorder, disparities and dysfunction it associates with emerging economy status.