The world’s trade and macro wonks have a new and exciting drama to watch. When will the Trump tariffs hit American consumers with higher prices? Will tariff inflation be like the poet Richard Armour’s description of shaking a ketchup bottle, “None will come, and then a lot’ll”? Or will it be Samuel Beckett’s Godot, always expected but never arriving? Will the Supreme Court, like a disinflationary vigilante posse, head off price rises at the pass by gunning down the tariffs as unconstitutional?
世界各地研究貿易與宏觀經濟的學究們有一場激動人心的新鮮大戲可看了。特朗普關稅會在什么時候給美國消費者帶來更高的物價？關稅通脹效應會像詩人理查德?阿穆爾(Richard Armour)描寫搖晃番茄醬瓶子那樣，“先是怎么都倒不出來，然后流出來一大堆”嗎？還是會像劇作家塞繆爾?貝克特(Samuel Beckett)筆下的戈多(Godot)，一直期待他來，卻永遠等不來？最高法院會像自發組織起來抗擊通脹的治安團那樣，判決這些關稅違憲，從而阻止物價上漲嗎？
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