Have central bank interest rates peaked in the US and the eurozone? If so, how quickly might they fall? From around mid-2021, central banks clearly had to tighten significantly. But what they have to do next is uncertain. Whatever central bankers might say about what they plan to do, events always have the last word. If, as many now expect, core inflation falls quickly towards their target, they will have to loosen policy. While loss of credibility is damaging when inflation gets too high, it is also so when it gets too low. A return to sub-target inflation and “pushing on a string” monetary policy would be highly undesirable. The time to respond to such risks looks close — closer than central banks admit, especially given the lags in transmission of the past tightening.
美國和歐元區的央行利率已經見頂了嗎？如果是的話，多久會開始下行？從2021年年中開始，美歐央行明顯不得不大幅收緊貨幣政策。但他們下一步必須怎么做還不確定。不管央行官員說他們計劃怎么做，最終總是要看形勢怎么發展。如果就像許多人現在預計的那樣，核心通脹率快速朝著目標水平下降，那么央行將不得不放松政策。在通脹過高時喪失公信力具有破壞性后果，在通脹過低時同樣如此。假如通脹率回到低于目標值的水平、貨幣政策重新陷入“推繩子”困境，那將是極其不可取的。對這種風險做出回應的時機看起來已經很近了，比央行承認的更近，尤其是考慮到已經采取的緊縮政策在傳導上存在滯后。