Everyone is struggling to see where interest rates are headed. Investors are jittery, as shown by gyrating long-term Treasury yields. America’s central bankers are trying to project calm, but they are in a fog too. On August 25, Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell summarised the mood when he said “we are navigating by the stars under cloudy skies”. Economists do have some tools to illuminate the path ahead. But they aren’t very helpful.
判斷利率的走向對每個人來說都是棘手難題。長期國債收益率的波動表明了投資者的緊張不安。美國央行官員們試圖表現出鎮定，但他們也看不清。8月25日，美聯儲(Federal Reserve)主席杰伊?鮑威爾(Jay Powell)精辟道出眾人的思緒：“我們是在陰天靠星星導航”。經濟學家們確實有一些工具可以照亮前方的路徑。但它們不是太有幫助。
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