Next week, the US Republicans will win one or both houses of Congress. Or fall just short in each. They will cheer the capture of governorships in some states (Nevada, perhaps). But rue losses elsewhere (Massachusetts). The results will signify a lasting Republican realignment. Or a routine anti-incumbent year into which little can be read.
All of these permutations are fun to ponder. But the central point gets lost in the obsession with small variances: the GOP is competitive. This fact should astound more people than it does. For the Capitol siege, for the foot-dragging over whether Joe Biden is the legitimate president, the electoral cost has been, well, not quite zero. (With a less Trumpist candidate, the party would be doing better in the Pennsylvania governor race.) But nor is it very great.
If enough voters punished them, Republicans would have an incentive to change. Instead, the party remains what it was at the turn of the millennium: one half of a 50-50 nation. Lots of voters, most of them not extreme or even political, and aware that the loss of their custom would force the GOP to reform, look at this party and decide they can live with it.