“Inflation is much too high and we understand the hardship it is causing, and we’re moving expeditiously to bring it back down. We have both the tools we need and the resolve it will take to restore price stability on behalf of American families and businesses.” Thus did Jay Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, open the press conference that followed the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee last week. This was a grovelling apology. But it also sounded rather like Mario Draghi’s celebrated “whatever it takes” remark of July 2012.
What does the Fed’s renewed commitment to low inflation signify for the future? Powell argued optimistically that “we have a good chance to have a soft or softish landing”. By this he meant that demand would be brought closer to supply, which could in turn “get wages down, and get inflation down without having to slow the economy and have a recession and have unemployment rise materially”. He also argued that “the economy is strong, and is well positioned to handle tighter monetary policy?.?.?.?but I’ll say I do expect that this will be very challenging”.
The most puzzling thing about this line of argument is not the admission that the suggested path will be hard to achieve, but the belief that it will reach its destination. Is it even possible to lower inflation to target just by trimming overheating of the labour market?