At this time of year, it is traditional for market economists to release detailed macro forecasts for the 12 months ahead. I am alarmed to find that I am now completing my fifth decade of performing this difficult exercise, with much less than perfect success so far. Important economic and market dislocations do not cram themselves neatly into a calendar year.
每年到了這個時候，市場經濟學家都會發布對未來12個月的詳細宏觀預測。令我自己都訝異的是，我正在為進行這項困難嘗試的第五個十年畫上句號，到目前為止離完美的成功預測還差得很遠。經濟以及市場的重大動蕩可不會整整齊齊地把自己擠進一個自然年。
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