The term “lame duck” is too passive to capture what is about to happen to Donald Trump. At home, Democrats are hoping to make a duck confit of his presidency. That is ominous news for America’s allies. Hobbled presidents tend to embrace the allure of the global stage. Richard Nixon pulled off some of his biggest foreign policy moves during the Watergate crisis. But Mr Trump is no Nixon. Nor is he served by a Henry Kissinger. There is not so much a Trump doctrine as a stock of Trumpian instincts. These were best captured by the phrase: “We’re America, bitch” from a senior White House official this year.
The question is how Mr Trump will use this leeway. The first test comes in France over the weekend when Mr Trump will attend the centennial of the end of the first world war. The White House says he will not meet Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the gathering. The Kremlin says they will have lunch on Sunday. The past two years give little guide as to whose word to believe. Either way, Mr Trump might prefer the military parades in France to the mudslinging in Washington. That said, were Mr Trump to meet Mr Putin without aides present — as he did in Helsinki in July — the backlash at home would carry greater menace. Democrats are now in a position to start impeachment proceedings.
Yet Mr Trump has some means to fight back. Contrary to normal midterm setbacks, the Republican loss of the House of Representatives was mirrored by an increased Republican majority in the Senate. It is the Senate that confirms White House nominees. That will make it far easier for Mr Trump to fill cabinet positions with whom he wishes. Should he replace Jim Mattis, the secretary of defence, with someone who bends more easily to his will, the Senate will rubber stamp it. Foreign policy during most of the first two years of Mr Trump’s term was constrained by the so-called axis of adults. The second two will be stuffed with Trumpian loyalists.