Remember the Arab Spring and the heady promise of freedom and peace in the Middle East? Many normally sensible observers were carried away by the excitement of the internet-led revolution in Tahrir Square and across the region. Now, a similarly happy transformation is promised in the energy market as the world moves away from oil, gas and coal. The transition is certainly coming but its implications will be as disruptive and dangerous as those of the Arab Spring. We should be prepared for the consequences rather than misled by wishful thinking.
還記得中東的“阿拉伯之春”(Arab Spring)、記得那些對自由與和平的令人神往的承諾嗎？許多平時理智的觀察人士也被開羅解放廣場乃至整個地區互聯網領導的革命帶來的興奮沖昏了頭腦。如今，隨著各國減少使用石油、天然氣及煤炭，全球能源市場也出現了同樣樂觀的轉型承諾。能源結構轉型無疑即將到來，但其潛在影響將如同“阿拉伯之春”的影響那樣具有破壞性和危險性。我們應該準備好應對后果，而不是被一廂情愿的想法所誤導。