One of the factors behind today’s exceptionally low global interest rates has been the return of excess savings in Asia since the turn of the decade. Much of this excess saving is channelled through foreign-exchange reserves. So the fact that China’s official reserves fell to $3.65tn in July from a peak of $3.99tn a year earlier is striking, especially against the background of the botched attempt to prop up Chinese equities. Note, too, that other emerging markets are using up official reserves to support their ailing currencies, Russia being a notable case in point. Could it be that one of the great drivers of the search for yield is going into reverse?
當今全球極低利率背后的因素之一，是亞洲自進入本10年開始再次出現儲蓄過剩。這些過剩儲蓄有很大部分通過外匯儲備流向了全世界。因此，中國官方外匯儲備今年7月從一年前3.99萬億美元的峰值降至3.65萬億美元引人注目（根據最新數字，到今年8月底，中國外匯儲備較7月底減少2.6%，至3.557萬億美元——編者注），尤其是在政府拯救股市努力失敗的背景下。也請注意，還有其他新興市場正在消耗官方儲備來支撐本國陷入困境的貨幣——俄羅斯就是一個顯著的例子。追求收益的一大驅動力是否可能已經發生了逆轉？