The best real estate investment in the world today? Beachfront huts in Somalia. That is according to Hans Rosling, a Swedish public health professor and data visualisation pioneer. A statistical geek is an unlikely source of property investment advice but Rosling’s rationale is convincing — and it is one that professional property developers such as Barratt and Klépierre are already putting into practice.
The explanation lies in demographics. All of the world’s forecast 3bn population growth through to 2100 will be urban, Rosling points out; a third will be in Asia, while two-thirds will be in Africa. In economic terms the developed west will grow at 1 to 2 per cent a year through until 2100, while the rest of the world will grow at 4 to 6 per cent. This amounts to a startling global shift in the pattern of trade.
“The Indian Ocean will be the Atlantic of the next generations,” predicts Rosling. As a result, the surf-beaten golden sands that stretch north from Mogadishu will make excellent holidaying territory for the Asian middle classes, several decades hence.