The recent disappearance of Kim Jong Un, North Korea’s young leader, from public view for more than 40 days has stirred enormous speculation and concern. His mysterious absence was further amplified by the country’s most senior military leader’s unexpected appearance in South Korea along with a high-level team to discuss the terms for renewed North-South diplomacy. These unusual comings and goings were the subject of feverish conjecture and rumour-mongering, with supposed experts suggesting that the “Young Genius” was either deposed in a coup and replaced by his sister, recovering from ankle surgery after an unfortunate fall in teetering high heels or recuperating in hiding after a disfiguring injury. Much of the more outlandish speculation seemed to be resolved by his reappearance in public on Tuesday last week, when he showed up in North Korean state media with a noticeable limp and black cane – perfect accessories to the already Bondish quality of his villainous reputation. Official television in Pyongyang offered helpfully that he had been experiencing “discomfort”.
What are we to make of all this? The basic questions about the durability of Mr Kim’s leadership and his relationship with his closest colleagues, family and the military, together with the seemingly contradictory overtures with South Korea – including calls to renew dialogue interspersed with exchanges of gunfire across the Demilitarised Zone – underscore the many uncertainties that are intrinsic to the North Korean drama. Northeast Asia is increasingly integral to the global economy and its economic development is critical to sustaining even lumbering global growth. However, North Korea’s continuing nuclear ambitions and occasional provocations pose significant worries to the fragile region which is beset by internal rivalries, historical disagreements and mutual distrust. It is no secret that relations between China and North Korea have frayed recently and there are ample concerns in Beijing that Pyongyang’s nefarious activities undermine China’s larger strategic interests. Still, fraternal Communist ties means the countries remain intertwined, although deeply distrustful of each other.
Park Gyeun-hye, South Korea’s president, has recently articulated an ambitious vision of a Korea reunited and a peaceful end to division on the peninsula. While most of her plan focuses on the hopes and benefits associated with such a reunion, there is still much worry about the North Korean dissolution or instability that would precede such a conjoining. Most Korea watchers believe that the process of reunification would likely be deeply unsettling and expensive, with the potential for nuclear leakage, mass refugee flows and misunderstandings between the larger surrounding states.