Washington is abuzz with talk of a containment strategy to deter a newly aggressive Russia and punish it for challenging the post-cold war European order with its seizure of Crimea. Advocates point out that similar strategies succeeded in undermining the Soviet Union and bringing Iran to the negotiating table. No matter that success came after more than 40 years in the first case and a dozen in the second, following the Iran non-proliferation act of 2000. Containment is a strategy for the long term, for at least as long as Vladimir Putin remains in power. It will not work. Nor will it advance US interests.
Economically, Russia is impossible to isolate. It is the world’s sixth-largest economy, and a leading exporter of hydrocarbons, providing the EU with a third of its oil and gas. While the White House promised further western sanctions on Friday, the big emerging economies have no intention of isolating Russia. None supported the recent UN General Assembly resolution condemning Russia’s annexation of Crimea.
Politically, the US lacks the power and authority to persuade or compel others, including its Nato allies, to follow its lead in cutting Russia off. Americans are exhausted after a decade of unsuccessful warfare. Europeans, focused on internal problems, are likewise not prepared to make sacrifices to contain Russia; certainly not over Ukraine.