Twenty-five years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, Europe again echoes to the sound and fury of revolution. Back in 1989 the collapse of the wall heralded the end of the cold war. Much of central and eastern Europe escaped Soviet hegemony and walked peacefully into the embrace of the European Union. The insurrectionary drama unfolding in Ukraine is still in its early days. Several acts lie ahead. But even when set against the epic events of 1989, its historic significance cannot be dismissed. This is a moment of immense opportunity – and immense danger – for Ukraine, for the EU and for Russia. More than any single moment since the collapse of the Soviet bloc, the revolution that began in Kiev heralds “the hour of Europe”.
Anyone contemplating the revolutionary developments in Kiev and the toppling of President Viktor Yanukovich must start by reflecting on what it signifies for Ukraine and its 46m people. The country separated peacefully from the dying Soviet Union in 1991, renounced nuclear weapons and seamlessly moved to independence. Hopes of a democratic future for the country were high, especially after the 2004 Orange Revolution. But in the intervening years the country has been led by a cynical, corrupt leadership that has taken Ukraine today to the brink of economic meltdown. The fall at the weekend of the Moscow-backed Yanukovich – toppled by his own political ineptitude as much as anything else – now gives Ukraine a fresh opportunity to become a functioning democratic state.
However, the Ukrainian revolution has political implications that go well beyond its borders. For a quarter of a century this huge territory perched precariously between the EU and Russia has been the object of a geopolitical contest between the Kremlin and the west. In 2008 President George W Bush made a clumsy attempt to tip that contest decisively in the west’s favour, seeking to draw two former Soviet states – Ukraine and Georgia – into the US-led Nato alliance. President Vladimir Putin responded with force. He drew a line under any new attempt to weaken Russian influence in its near abroad, road-blocking the Nato applications and invading Georgia. But the Maidan revolution now offers a second chance for all parties to reconsider the status of Ukraine on the faultline of Europe. If Ukraine can be drawn into the economic and political community of Europe without alarming Russia, this would be an immense achievement for European values and for the international standing of the EU.