Take the biggest landlord at the heart of one of the world’s most expensive cities. Add in dollar-pegged monetary policy and an expected tightening of credit. Then watch the company outperform its peers. Hongkong Land’s 8 per cent rally this year shows that differentiating between types of property pays off.
Hong Kong, where HK Land mostly operates, and Singapore, where it is listed, are the two Asian property markets thought to be most at risk from the withdrawal of the Federal Reserve’s stimulus because of their dollar links and the credit boom both enjoyed. Hong Kong home prices peaked in March last year, having more than doubled since their 2008 trough. A series of cooling measures sapped activity in 2013 and that, plus stretched affordability, have led some to forecast that prices will fall 30 per cent in two years. But, operations in mainland China and southeast Asia notwithstanding, HK Land’s heart is its prime office space in Central, Hong Kong’s main business district – a market more in step with broader economic trends. An upturn in financial market activity, limited new supply and low vacancy rates should lift rents 5 per cent this year, says Standard Chartered.
The impact of Fed tapering is still the subject of heated debate. Prices can prove resistant to rising credit costs; Hong Kong banks have room to lend; and affordability, by some measures, is not at historic lows. Since markets were first spooked by the idea of tapering eight months ago, Hong Kong property stocks, and HK Land, are off 12 per cent, while Singapore’s Reits have lost a fifth. Both groups have underperformed the wider market. Those falls leave HK Land’s 8 per cent rally so far this year – and the 6 per cent enjoyed by Swire Properties, a rival landlord – with room to run. The smart money is in picking sectors, not betting on prices.