The US-backed accords that brought a halt to half a century of intermittent civil war between north and south Sudan envisaged separation as a last resort. Six years later it has come to that: the south becomes independent on Saturday. No doubt it will be a day of celebration for southern Sudanese, who voted overwhelmingly to turn their back on their northern oppressors. But the break-up of the country provides no guarantee that the future on either side of the border will be better. Rather, there is every possibility that from the failed state that spawned Africa’s longest civil war will be born two failed states, each containing the seeds of future conflicts.
The south, alone the size of Nigeria, has barely 100km of paved road. It lacks most of the essentials of statehood, and already faces rebellion from within its midst. Since the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement began governing autonomously, the former rebels have shown scant commitment to building institutions and services or opening up the political space. Corruption is endemic.
The north, too, carries the disease that led to civil war – a centralised administration dominated by a small Arab minority that governs with an iron fist. If there is no change at the centre, Khartoum will no doubt face fresh rebellions on its peripheries, further fragment- ing what was Africa’s largest state.