The US-backed accords that brought a halt to half a century of intermittent civil war between north and south Sudan envisaged separation as a last resort. Six years later it has come to that: the south becomes independent on Saturday. No doubt it will be a day of celebration for southern Sudanese, who voted overwhelmingly to turn their back on their northern oppressors. But the break-up of the country provides no guarantee that the future on either side of the border will be better. Rather, there is every possibility that from the failed state that spawned Africa’s longest civil war will be born two failed states, each containing the seeds of future conflicts.
蘇丹北部和南部地區之間曾發生長達半個世紀、時斷時續的內戰。按照美國支持下旨在結束內戰的協議，最后出路將是雙方相互分離。六年后，這種設想成為了現實：南蘇丹將在本周六宣告獨立。無疑，這一天對南蘇丹人民來說將是個歡慶的日子，他們在公民投票中以絕對多數支持獨立，與北方的壓迫者們分道揚鑣。但是，蘇丹的解體并不能保證任何一方的未來將會更美好。相反，有相當大的可能性出現以下情況：這個曾經爆發非洲最長內戰的失敗國家，將誕生兩個失敗國家，而兩國都帶有未來沖突的種子。