Like twinkling diamonds, recent figures from luxury goods groups have provided little points of light in the growing markets gloom. Tiffany kicked things off last month with a raised earnings forecast and holiday sales up 17 per cent year on year. Richemont, Burberry, Swatch and – late last week – Hermès and LVMH all followed with sales ahead of expectations in the final quarter of 2009 and moderately optimistic outlooks. The figures from Richemont and Swatch's upmarket brands suggested the recession is over even for bigger-ticket items such as luxury watches.
But if the statements were mostly upbeat, they also contained several recurring themes – not all positive. Cheaper categories such as handbags, leather goods and fashion were still the best performers overall. And China, more than ever, is the motor of industry growth; Japan, which once played that role, is sharply negative. North American sales growth is unspectacular, with a newfound addiction to discounts that may be hard to break; Europe, still the industry's biggest profits pool, is weak. Assuming the broader economic recovery does not stumble, that looks set to be the pattern for the next year or two.
If so, industry growth will be more lopsided and much weaker overall than it was in luxury's golden years of 2004-08. Then, China was not alone in driving growth; the US and Europe played strong supporting roles. HSBC suggests 2010 is likely to show only mid to high single-digit organic growth for the sector. That is in line with the long-run average of 7 per cent, rather than the mid-teens of the years before the financial crisis. In those years, forward price/earnings multiples hit the mid-20s. These days, most groups trade on more modest high-teen multiples. Given the altered backdrop, that looks sparkly enough.