In 2016, I was one of the fools who thought people wouldn’t vote for Donald Trump. As I explained to readers before the Republican primaries, “The electorate generally just wants a leader who appears sane, which is why Republicans almost certainly won’t nominate Trump.” I was taking my lead from so-called experts. “If you want to know the future,” I wrote in May that year, “the best forecasters are betting markets?.?.?.?The Oddschecker website, which compares odds offered by different bookmakers, indicates a chance of just over one in four that Brits will opt for Brexit. The chances of Trump becoming American president or Marine Le Pen French president are judged a tad smaller.”
2016年，我是那些認為人們不會投票給唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)的傻瓜之一。正如我在共和黨初選前向讀者解釋的那樣，“選民通常只想要一個看起來理智的領導人，這就是為什么共和黨幾乎肯定不會提名特朗普?！蔽衣爮牧怂^專家的建議?！叭绻阆胫牢磥恚蔽以谀悄?月寫道，“最好的預測者是博彩市場……Oddschecker網站比較了不同博彩公司提供的賠率，顯示英國人選擇退歐的機會略高于四分之一。特朗普成為美國總統或馬琳?勒龐(Marine Le Pen)成為法國總統的機會被認為稍微小一些?！?/p>