The pandemic proved the efficacy of messenger RNA vaccines in fighting disease. But this was not the intention of the technology’s pioneers. They had other goals in mind, notably tackling cancer. That vision is now being put to the test, with promising early results.
The world’s first personalised mRNA cancer immunotherapy for melanoma has begun phase 3 clinical trials. The treatment, developed by Boston-based Moderna in conjunction with Merck, is intended to prevent the recurrence of cancer after surgery. Tailored to the tumour’s genetic signature, it prepares the patient’s immune system to attack malignant cells.
If the therapy lives up to the high expectations set by an earlier trial, it could be a blockbuster. Michael Yee of Jefferies reckons that treating melanoma patients alone could mean peak annual sales for Moderna of $1bn. That amounts to a present value of roughly $5bn, assuming a 75 per cent chance of success and an EV-to-sales multiple of 7. The latter is based on valuations of similar high-margin biotech businesses, discounted because peak sales would occur at the end of the decade at the earliest. Should the technology be effective against other tumours, its potential value would be multiples of that.