A couple of years ago, taking questions on stage in front of a live audience, I was asked to do my duty as an economist and make an economic forecast. But the questioner had a demanding benchmark for what made a good prediction, informing me that the previous keynote speaker at this conference had been a prominent scientist, who warned of a deadly global pandemic. That was in the autumn of 2019. Would my forecast be as good?
幾年前，在臺上面對現場觀眾回答問題時，我被要求履行經濟學家的職責，做出經濟預測。但提問者對什么是好的預測有一個苛刻的標準，他告訴我，這次會議的前一位主題演講者是一位著名的科學家，他警告過一場致命的全球流行病。那是在2019年秋天。我的預測也會這么準嗎？
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