Donald Trump’s “liberation day” of supposedly “reciprocal tariffs” against the rest of the world — arguably, the most eccentric trade policy proposals ever made — has, after a hasty retreat under fire from the markets, turned into a trade war with China. This may (or, may not) have been what was intended from the start. So, can Trump win this war against China? Indeed, can the US, as it is now after Trump’s second coming, hope to succeed in its wider rivalry with China? The answers are “no”. This is not because China is invincible, far from it. It is because the US is throwing away all the assets it needs if it is to maintain its status in the world against a power as huge, able and determined as China.
“Trade wars are good and easy to win”, Trump posted in 2018. As a general proposition, this is false: trade wars hurt both sides. A deal might be reached that makes both sides better off than before. More likely, any deal will make one side better off than before and the other worse off. The latter sort of deal is, presumably, what Trump hopes will emerge: the US will win; China will lose.
At the moment, the US imposes a 145 per cent tariff on Chinese imports, while China imposes a 125 per cent tariff on the US. China has also restricted exports of “rare earths” to the US. These are very high, indeed in effect prohibitive, barriers to trade. This looks like a “Mexican stand-off”, one that neither can win, between the two superpowers.