The writer is a philanthropist, investor and economist
As US equity markets trace the contours of the third great speculative bubble in history, investor confidence in a new economic era has reached extreme levels.
Among several valuation measures setting record highs is one that has reliably been a gauge for the subsequent returns and potential losses of the S&P 500 index over the following 10 to 12 years: the ratio of the market capitalisation of US non-financial companies to “gross value-added” or corporate revenues generated incrementally at each stage of production. Since early 2022, this metric has rivalled and now exceeds the peaks of both 1929 and 2000.
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