Central bankers are increasingly confident that inflation can be vanquished without driving up unemployment sharply, as economists forecast “immaculate disinflation”.
Analysts polled by Consensus Economics see inflation easing from multi-decade highs to about 2 per cent this year in most advanced economies including the US, Germany, France, UK, Italy and eurozone.
Victories over inflation have traditionally come at a heavy cost, as harsh monetary policy measures lead economies into recession and push up jobless rates. UK and US unemployment rates doubled in the 1980s as borrowing costs rose to tackle high inflation triggered by oil price shocks.
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