Just as central banks have been getting out their big guns to fight levels of inflation that had caught them all unawares, global financial markets have sprung another surprise. Rate-setters had been criticised for neglecting accelerating prices in favour of support for growth. Now, it seems possible that they may find themselves accused of the opposite.
Over the past few weeks, many of the commodity prices that were at the centre of the current inflationary burst have slumped dramatically. The Brent crude oil benchmark briefly fell below $100?this week, down one-fifth from a month earlier. Copper and iron prices are both one-third lower than their spring peaks. Iron is at its cheapest so far this year, copper cheaper than at any time since January 2021. Timber prices have see-sawed almost all the way back to pre-pandemic levels.
Even some food commodity prices, whose rise was among the most tragic repercussions of Russia’s war on Ukraine given the latter’s key role as a supplier of agricultural goods, have been coming back to earth. Wheat now trades at the same price as right before the invasion, and almost 40 per cent below the peak in May.