The writer is an analyst at UBS
The climate debate can be captured in three simple questions: is there an emergency? Will we address it? And who should pay the costs?
The first question seems to have been settled by the latest IPCC report and its conclusion that we are likely to experience global warming of 1.5C within 20 years, as the Paris agreement had hoped to avoid. The second should be settled this November at the COP26 climate conference, where for the first time in history the US, Europe and China will arrive having already pledged a pathway to zero emissions. So a repeat of the 2019 conference, where nothing of note was agreed, seems almost inconceivable. Which means that we are left today with the last and hardest question: how to pay for the green transition.