The number of new coronavirus cases in Hong Kong is expected to drop to zero within four to six weeks if social distancing measures are maintained, according to research from the University of Hong Kong.
Ben Cowling, a professor of epidemiology, said the university's research estimates that the daily reproductive number dropped / below 1 a week ago. The reproductive number indicates the average number of people to whom an infected individual will pass the virus.
“Of course, if we were now to relax, transmission could resurge,” he said. “If the measures started on 20 July are sustained, we should see daily case numbers drop to zero within around 4-6 weeks. We may also need two weeks of zero cases before deciding measures can be relaxed.”
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