Almost three decades have passed since the Soviet Union collapsed. Back then, many in the west and in Russia dared to hope a European-style liberal democracy could take hold. Those hopes are in tatters. A clan of former Soviet security men and loyal oligarchs run an ever more Potemkin democracy, with Vladimir Putin as frontman and guarantor. A constitutional referendum last week paved the way for Mr Putin to remain president potentially until 2036 — by which time he will be 83 and the longest-serving paramount Russian leader since Peter the Great. Russia, it seems, has defaulted to its centuries-old model of one-man rule.
Yet far from entrenching the powers of Mr Putin and his ruling circle, the machinations of recent months have left them looking more fragile. Russia’s president started the year with popularity ratings already near record lows. The boost from the 2014 annexation of Crimea had evaporated. A stagnant economy, falling incomes and a rise in the pension age dented his support.
The Kremlin apparently decided to tackle the “succession question” as term limits barring Mr Putin from standing as president again in 2024 risked making him a lame duck. Russian elites were restive. Yet, as former Kremlin spin-doctor Gleb Pavlovsky has noted, despite his reputation as a strategist, Mr Putin and his team are more of a political “jazz band” — masters of improvisation. Rarely has that sense been stronger than this year.