For years we have been talking of the decoupling of emerging markets from developed markets. Covid-19 is showing us that we may have got the argument wrong. Before decoupling from developed markets, emerging countries first need to decouple from each other.
As much as has been said about EM not being a homogeneous asset class, they are often classed as one, spanning China to Argentina. Yet the pandemic is telling us that EM countries have grown worlds apart, independently from how we tag them. A particularly big divide is visible between North Asia and the rest of EM.
The ways in which different countries have dealt with, contained and are now overcoming coronavirus will determine their macro outlook and, ultimately, their market performance. China, Taiwan and South Korea — for those of us who still include South Korea in EM — are arguably dealing more effectively with the pandemic and are now further ahead on the path of social and economic normalisation.