The die is cast. Parliament has backed Boris Johnson’s withdrawal agreement, putting Britain on course to leave the EU on January 31. It is now clear that the future of the UK union itself will move centre stage next year. The Scottish National party, armed with electoral gains this month and the argument that Brexit is a material change to the UK’s constitutional make-up, wants a new vote on independence. Supporters of the union must make the case for its survival.
Viewed from Scotland, political arguments for independence have strengthened. The 55-45 “No” vote to independence in its 2014 poll never envisaged that Scotland would within years be pulled out of the EU by a majority vote in England and Wales, after Scotland backed Remain 62-38.
Mr Johnson’s withdrawal deal hands SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon even more ammunition. It grants close economic alignment with the EU to Northern Ireland to prevent a “hard” border with the south. Ms Sturgeon notes her proposals to enable Scotland to remain in the EU single market and customs union were, by contrast, ignored.