US growth and bond yields have converged towards those of the rest of the world this year. But there has been no reversal of the US dollar’s 2018 strength, merely a slowing of its appreciation.
Neither a dovish Fed nor a currency-focused White House has been able to change its trajectory. That is because the dollar’s fortunes are not being scripted in the US but in the rest of the world.
For decades, the most consistent driver of the dollar has been the difference in growth between the US and the rest of the world. This simple yet powerful model has limits, however. In particular, it breaks down when global growth is weak.
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