The truce declared by Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in their trade war, while welcome, will probably need repeated extension, for the issues dividing the US and China go well beyond trade. Mike Pence, US vice-president, gave the strongest indication of this in a speech in October, where he all but declared a new cold war.
Mr Pence’s speech reflects a deep-seated bipartisan worry in Washington that China is catching up with the US, both economically and militarily. Central to both issues is the waning US lead in new technologies. If Americans lose their edge here, they fear eventually being overwhelmed by China’s four to one advantage in population. Washington worries that the more the Chinese are allowed to continue to steal intellectual property, to coerce companies investing in China to part with it or to acquire western companies that possess it, the faster China will catch up.
It is reasonable to demand that China brings its IP practices in line with western norms. However, the Chinese fear that this is not the ultimate US aim. They believe that even if they comply, the US will not allow a significant Chinese presence in frontier industries including robotics, artificial intelligence and semi-conductors. That, to the Chinese, smacks of a ceiling on development. It is simply non-negotiable.