Nobody knows how Brexit will unfold between now and next March. It’s feasible that the UK and the EU fail to strike a deal, that Theresa May falls, that Jeremy Corbyn is elected prime minister, that Brexit is delayed, or that a second referendum is held. As the Adidas slogan says: “Impossible is nothing.” Only when you look further into the future do things become clearer. I’ve been interviewing many Brexit participants in Britain and on the continent, and have concluded that the two scenarios now being endlessly debated — Britain living under no-deal, or a second referendum killing Brexit — are almost inconceivable. Even if there’s briefly a no-deal, or a second vote is held, neither will stick. Long-term, the most likely outcome is Brino (Brexit in name only) or a very soft Brexit.
Let’s take no-deal first. Many Brexiters would love it: a return to an imagined 1940, minus Luftwaffe bombs. Recent polls show about a third of Britons back no-deal — around double the proportion that want a negotiated deal. Priti Patel, a Brexiter Conservative MP from Brexity Essex who spent her summer recess doorstepping local voters, told me: “I heard a lot of strong language.” Her constituents think the government should stand up to Brussels. They dismiss as weakness plans for stockpiling food and medicine in case of no-deal. Patel largely agrees with them: “Regressive language about no-deal has led to some ridiculous doomsday scenarios.” Brexiter retirees in particular would happily ride out any hit to the economy from no-deal.
Their problem is that most Britons wouldn’t. Slightly over half the population now thinks the UK should remain in the EU, according to every poll since late March. Probably about another 15 to 20 per cent aren’t willing to suffer for Brexit, so two-thirds of Britons will be livid if there is stockpiling, queueing at the border, grounding of planes etc. Many voters would blame Brussels, but they would also blame the Tories — possibly for decades. Labour spent 18 years in opposition after presiding over the strike-ridden “winter of discontent” of 1978/79.