It was Wednesday so Europe went from being a “foe” of America to a “great friend”. Next Monday might be different. Perhaps Europe will still be in Donald Trump’s good books. The only person who can say for sure is Mr Trump. Even he probably has little idea. But my hunch is that the ceasefire he struck with Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission, will hold. Mr Trump loves applause and the last-minute trade agreement with Brussels earned a transatlantic ovation. Europe has won a reprieve. The portents for China have commensurately darkened.
They were already dimming before Mr Trump’s latest rabbit trick. His squeeze on China is now likely to be backed by the Europeans and the US business community. Both have long advocated combined western pressure on China to put foreign investors on a level playing field. Both share deep concern about China’s systemic technology transfer. Neither like the sound of Xi Jinping’s “Made in China 2025” plan, since it aims to eat their lunch on artificial intelligence. Mr Trump has cut himself far more leeway to indulge in China-bashing.
The chances are that he will use it. There are three forces conspiring to worsen US-China relations. The first is politics. As the US midterm elections loom, the temptation to scaremonger on China will grow. It worked for Mr Trump in 2016. Then he accused China of raping the US economy. He said nothing similar about Europe. Then, as now, most Americans associated post-industrial ravage with China. They did not accuse Europe of stealing their manufacturing jobs. Nor did they blame technology, as they should have. It is hard to win an election against robots. Beijing offers a tried and tested target.