Amid all the market euphoria and forecasting frenzy about the state of world growth, the World Bank has struck an uncharacteristically cautious note
. Sure, Planet Earth’s growth rate, as defined by gross domestic product, is expected to edge up to 3.1 per cent in 2018 after a much stronger than expected 2017. But this could be merely “a short-term upswing”, the report warns. Demographics, falling productivity, slower investment and a closure of the output gap could put that figure at risk in future years. The potential growth of Earth may be lower than currently experienced. In short, the era of “Peak GDP” may be upon us.
Although this is perfectly acceptable economics-speak, my overriding reaction is that this is gobbledegook. It is as though the very mission of people living on Earth is to push GDP growth faster and faster — presumably because we are in a race with aliens living on other planets who might outdo us on the GDP league tables. Although there are some noises in the report’s accompanying publicity about the role of growth in “reducing poverty around the world”, the overriding impression is that we are in an undeclared race in which the goal itself is to produce as fast growth as possible.