What happens next in the global energy market depends to a disturbing degree on China. Disturbing not because the Chinese have done anything wrong – they haven’t. The country’s energy policy has been rational and largely predictable. But the situation is changing. The problem is that Beijing has become such a substantial force in the market that their actions or otherwise can send waves, often intentionally, through every part of the system. At the same time the predictability of the outcomes has eroded. The uncertainties over their future energy strategy, which I described in last week’s post, make them a very disruptive force in a market already struggling to keep up with multiple changes.
全球能源市場的下一步在令人不安的程度上取決于中國。不安不是因為中國人做錯了什么——他們沒有做錯什么。中國的能源政策是理性的，而且基本上是可預測的。但情況正在發生變化。問題在于中國在能源市場上變得如此舉足輕重，以至于中方的一舉一動（或者不作為）都可能產生沖擊波（往往是有意的），波及系統的每一部分。與此同時，結局的可預測性已受到侵蝕。我在最近的文章中描述了中國未來能源戰略的不確定性，這讓中國的能源政策在一個已經在艱難適應多種變化的市場上成為極大的顛覆力量。