Donald Trump and his economic team love manufacturing. That much is clear from Mr Trump’s speeches; from what his strategist Steve Bannon has said about his self-avowed economic nationalism; and from his trade adviser Peter Navarro’s attacks on Germany and stated goal to repatriate international supply chains.
There is a certain method in their factory worker machismo. As a matter of economic logic, a fetish for mercantilism — exports are good, imports are bad — goes hand in hand with one for manufacturing. The high productivity of manufacturing means a country with a large proportion of its workforce in factories needs to ship a lot of its output abroad: it will simply be producing too many goods for its own population to consume. Since it is harder to import services than goods, an industrial power will find it difficult to consume the full value of its excess production. Instead, it tends to become a financial creditor to the rest of the world, lending its customers the funds to buy its goods.
On a global level, there is only so much demand for manufacturers, and therefore only so many manufacturing jobs to be had. Only in a few countries, therefore, can manufacturing be the preponderant economic activity. For the past two generations, there are three countries that have traditionally been goods producers to the world: Germany, Japan and China. It is no coincidence that these have been both industrial powerhouses and surplus economies.