The downbeat mood of the times was confirmed before Christmas by the publication of the Bloomberg Pessimist’s Guide to 2017. The guide lists some of the things that could go badly wrong across the world in 2017. Last year the Guide predicted both Brexit and Donald Trump’s election as US president. This year the possibilities range from the collapse of the Mexican economy after Mr Trump pulls the US out of Nafta to the election of Marine Le Pen as the next president of France. Some of the predictions, such as California’s decision to declare independence from the US (Calexit), to the forced departure of the Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman could be seen as ambivalent outcomes that many would welcome. Pessimism, however, has its limits and so here, are a few notes of hope for the New Year. As ever, I have focused on the core issues of energy but politics are never far away. Some of the possibilities listed seem to me highly likely to occur to one degree or another. Others are long shots – but then Donald Trump was a long shot a year ago.
2016年圣誕節前，彭博2017年《悲觀者指南》(Bloomberg Pessimist’s Guide)的發布確認了當今的悲觀情緒。這份指南列出了2017年全球可能會出現嚴重問題的一些事件。英國退歐和唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)當選美國總統這兩件事，去年的《指南》都預測到了。今年，可能發生的最糟糕情況多種多樣，從特朗普讓美國退出《北美自由貿易協定》(NAFTA)后墨西哥經濟崩潰到馬琳?勒龐(Marine Le Pen)當選法國下屆總統。一些預測（例如加州決定脫離美國宣布獨立以及沙特副王儲穆罕默德?本?薩勒曼(Mohammed bin Salman)被迫離開）可能被視為好壞參半的結果，會受到許多人的歡迎。然而，悲觀主義是有限度的，因此以下是2017年值得期待的幾點。像以往一樣，我一直關注于核心的能源問題，但政治從未遠離。在我看來，從某種程度而言，以下列出的一些可能性似乎很有可能成真。其他則可能性很小，但一年前，特朗普當選也是可能性很小的事件。