What exactly are companies going to earn this year? It is a prosaic question but cuts to the heart of the hopes that have taken over the US stock market since the US election almost two months ago.
The first stage of the so-called Trump rally appears to be over. The Dow Industrials has been oscillating just below the 20,000 landmark for three weeks now. Many factors will determine whether there is a second stage, but the most important will come at almost the same time. First, we need to know what results from President Trump’s first 100 days. Any number of priorities and plans now seem possible. Projecting a policy agenda is still largely guesswork. After the first few weeks of his presidency, when he has launched an agenda, and Congress has made a first response, we will have a far clearer idea of what the new administration has in store — and also a better judgment on the winners and losers.
Second, we need to hear from corporate America. Awkwardly for corporate chieftains, they need to brief shareholders about their outlook for 2017 during the forthcoming earnings season, which will overlap with the beginning of the Trump term. CEOs will have no choice but to express some kind of opinion on policy and on the emerging politics. This will be critically important.