Many consider the term the “Arab world” to be a misnomer, for while it identifies a linguistic region with deep historical, cultural and religious affinities it lumps together, say, a Dubai and an Aleppo. Yet many of those same people find it hard to remember a time when this region’s prospects looked more uniformly bleak. Everyone can discern the commercial vibrancy of a city like Dubai, and differentiate it from the apocalyptic ruins of Aleppo, the war-stricken business hub of Syria. But there is a pall of violence and upheaval that seems to envelop the region as a whole.
Ethno-sectarian war is cracking Syria and Iraq into de facto partition, with Isis and its cross-border caliphate in both countries threatening the rest of the Levant — and beyond. The cycles of upheaval in Egypt, the most populous Arab state, have turned the country inwards, menaced by Isis in the Sinai to the east and from a crumbling Libya to its west. The absolute monarchies of the Gulf reacted to the wave of the “Arab Spring” turmoil with a mix of repression and largesse, hosing their subjects into quiescence with handouts worth tens of billions of dollars. The oil price collapse has made the long-term affordability of this moot.
Progress is visible, as this report shows — from the growing confidence of women in business in Saudi Arabia to entrepreneur Karim Tazi speaking out against corruption in higher places in Morocco. Oil majors remain attracted to Iraq and its vast hydrocarbon reserves, while arms manufacturers, backed by casuistic western governments, continue the scramble for lucrative contracts from Saudi Arabia to the United Arab Emirates.