A couple of weeks ago, the British media got very excited about a by-election in provincial Kent in which a candidate for the anti-immigration UK Independence party won a solitary seat, doubling its tally in parliament at a stroke. If that was a political upheaval then what occurred last weekend in Taiwan was more like a Krakatoa-sized eruption. In the so-called called “nine-in-one election”, voters chose nine categories of officials, from village heads to city mayors. More than 11,000 seats were at stake and the turnout was a hefty 68 per cent. The result was a crushing defeat for the governing Kuomintang party, or KMT, and a triumph for the opposition Democratic Progressive party.
The DPP has far more troubled relations with mainland China than the KMT, which under Ma Ying-jeou, president since 2008, has drawn closer to Beijing. When the DPP was in power before that, it stirred Beijing’s wrath by pressing for outright independence. Beijing considers Taiwan, a self-ruled island, an inalienable part of China. Ukip has a similarly troubled relationship with Europe. If ever elected to run Britain – something almost inconceivable – it is sworn to quit the EU. There is a huge difference. Unlike Ukip, the DPP has a real shot at winning the next general election, due to take place in 2016. And if it were bold enough to declare independence, Beijing is committed to declare war and to take Taiwan back by force. (Brussels, so far as I know, has made no such threat regarding the UK.)
Given China’s increasing military might, the DPP has backed away from its independence line. Its current leader, Tsai Ing-wen, who will probably be the presidential candidate in 2016, has softened her tone, though she has always been careful not to rule out independence altogether. For her, there is China. And then there is Taiwan. Ms Tsai’s refusal to play nice with Beijing makes her a potentially inflammatory figure on the mainland. She is even controversial in Washington. When she was running for president in 2012, a senior US official said the prospect of a “President Tsai” raised concerns over stability in cross-Strait relations. Washington is legally obliged to help Taiwan defend itself, leaving open the unpalatable possibility that Americans might be sent in to fight a Chinese invasion force.