The starting point for anyone wanting to understand how the world’s energy markets will develop over the next 20 years must be China. Companies, bankers, investors and those of us who try to follow the industry will have to shift our attention away from local circumstances in Europe or the US. What happens in both continents is interesting, but on the world scale it pales into insignificance. Even a very radical change in the European market — a real carbon price or a single common energy policy, or indeed the development of French and German shale gas — would be as nothing compared to the transformation that is coming, as China becomes the dominant force in every part of the energy business.
Consider a few facts and projections. The facts are taken from the BP Statistical Review, while the projections are from the International Energy Agency annual outlook and reflect the general consensus of private sector forecasters
In the last decade, Chinese oil use has almost doubled. Gas consumption has risen fivefold and electricity production is up by factor of 9. Total energy demand in China is up 60 per cent in a decade and 300 per cent since 1990. China alone now accounts for 22 per cent of global energy every day. And that is just the beginning.