A milestone of sorts was reached last year when, for the first time ever, more bank credit as a percentage of GDP went to emerging markets than developed markets.
That is not exactly counterintuitive, since emerging markets, especially in Asia, have always relied heavily on credit to fuel their growth.
When the European banks seized up following the global financial crisis that began in the US, the concern was almost as great in Asia as it was in Europe itself. The concern was especially intense because European banks accounted for a huge part of trade finance, the lifeblood of Asia. At that time, though, regional banks were able to largely fill the gap. Moreover, the US Federal Reserve was about to flood the world with liquidity, with much of it flowing to emerging markets. The cost of capital remained low, allowing these markets to continue to grow.