There are tantalising signs that we are leaving the top-down world. But they are still only signs, and it is far from clear that anyone can yet profit from it.
For at least five years, world capital markets have been driven from the top down. Correlations between once-unrelated asset classes have remained tight, as have correlations within asset classes, between different stocks or different bonds.
For corporate treasurers hoping to exert some control over their cost of equity, correlated markets make life difficult. It is also harder for fund managers to beat the market; if all stocks move together, there is little point choosing between them.
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