America’s 2012 election is all about the economy. Yet national security may prove critical on the margins. Mitt Romney is doing his best to depict Barack Obama as someone who leads from behind. If elected, Mr Romney may well bring continuity on foreign policy – as so often happens. Yet he also risks boxing himself in with excessively hawkish language. That applies both to the substance and the politics.
On the first, Mr Romney promises a more assertive administration that would push back against China yet identify Russia as the chief national security challenge. He would ensure US defence spending never falls below 4 per cent of gross domestic product – roughly a fifth more than today. And he would be more willing than Mr Obama to project force.
In practice, he may well pick up where Mr Obama left off, as the latter did from George W. Bush across a surprisingly wide canvas. The decision to move to red alert on Vladimir Putin’s Russia would almost certainly run into opposition from America’s Nato partners. It is doubtful a new president beset by economic woes would pick unnecessary fights.