Vladimir Putin has won the expected first-round victory in Russia’s presidential election. But this is not business as usual. The middle-class protests of recent weeks show that politics, after a 12-year slumber, have reawoken. Just months ago, it was assumed Mr Putin could be back for two more presidential terms. Instead, yesterday’s poll marks the beginning of what is in all probability his final six-year term; the beginning of the end of the Putin era.
Two big questions remain. One is whether Mr Putin will even complete the full six years of the coming term. The second is whether the Putin “system”, even if in modified form, will survive under a new leader from within the ruling group, or whether it will sooner or later give way to something new – in an orderly or disorderly way.
What is clear is that Mr Putin’s popularity is in decline. Pre-election polls suggested he now enjoys less than 50 per cent support in Moscow and St Petersburg, Russia’s political capitals. His base remains stronger in rustbelt cities and the countryside. But even there, focus group research and anecdotal evidence suggest creeping disillusionment.