For foreign fund managers pondering an entry to China, the bad news is that assets under management have more or less stood still for the past two years, ranging between Rmb2,300bn and Rmb2,400bn. The good news is that a decade earlier, that number was zero. That is why many should leap at the chance of taking a minority stake in China Asset Management Corporation, the largest and best connected manager in the business, which started soliciting bids this week.
China AMC is selling five tranches, totalling 51 per cent: two to state-owned enterprises, two to domestic companies, and one to a (suitably qualified) foreigner. About 30 foreign fund managers already have a presence. Notable absentees from the mainland Chinese market include T Rowe Price, Legg Mason or Vanguard, none of whom should blanch at meeting a valuation equivalent to 7.2 per cent of assets under management – two or three times the typical price-tag for a Western fund manager. Since 2005 stakes have been sold at an average of 6.4 per cent, according to Z-Ben Advisors, a Shanghai-based consultancy. And this is one of perhaps half a dozen Chinese fund management companies capable of dictating distribution terms to the big five banks, which control about 90 per cent of the customers.
Yes, the domestic market is pretty soporific. The CSI index (the blended Shanghai and Shenzhen benchmark) is almost exactly where it started the year, having meandered between a rise and a fall of 8 percentage points - not the kind of exciting short-term returns for which Chinese stocks are known, and that can entice retail investors. But it won’t stay dull forever. A correction in property could reignite interest in stocks, especially if combined with a fall in inflation. In global fund management, this is as good as opportunities get.