Hong Kong, the world's fifth most expensive property market, has suffered as wealthy speculators and tenants evaporate. Luxury home prices on Hong Kong island fell by a third, quarter-on-quarter, in October-December, and 19 per cent year-on-year, according to CB Richard Ellis. On the Peak, once home to colonial government mandarins, prices had the sharpest decline since the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98. Transactions have slowed dramatically, with just 258 deals in January compared with 734 a year ago. Lowlier purchasers, too, are feeling the pinch. New mortgage loans drawn down fell 11 per cent month-on-month in December, to one-third the levels of December 2007. Rising unemployment, reluctant lenders and an exodus of foreign investors (plus shoals of expat bankers) imply further declines.
Yet, on this score at least, Mr Mugabe may not be completely barmy. Luxury residential prices are still at roughly double the lows chalked up during the Sars virus and 1998. While markets can test previous lows, the fundamentals look better this time round. The territory's banks are highly liquid, with just over half of all deposits lent out. New mortgage applications approved rose 23 per cent month-on-month in December. Mortgage payments as a percentage of household income are virtually one-third those of a decade ago, according to UBS. Rental yields are a decent 3.5 -4.5 per cent at the luxury end. There is little real distress. Delinquency rates are a negligible 0.05 per cent and fewer than 11,000 homes, worth an aggregate $3.2bn, are in negative equity. Mr Mugabe may not turn a quick profit, but he probably isn't going to take a bath either.