After cooling gradually during the course of the year, the Chinese economy slowed much more abruptly in September and October, catching companies, economists and government officials by surprise. Just as the collapse of Lehman Brothers deepened the credit crunch in the west, it also seemed to cause a sharp jolt to confidence in China.
As a result, the figures for October show an economy that is decelerating quickly. Industrial production rose by 8.2 per cent – which might not seem too bad in most countries, but was the lowest result in China since 2001. There were two other big warning signs – tax revenues and electricity production, both important bell-wethers for overall economic activity, decreased in October for the first time in nearly a decade.
China's problems actually began at home. Fearing the property market was in danger of becoming a bubble, the authorities introduced a string of new restrictions last year to dampen demand. It became harder to get a mortgage for a second home – a measure aimed at reducing speculation – and property developers faced bigger penalties if they sat on unused blocks of land.